Truth Has Predictive Power

Dec 18, 2024

What is truth?

We talk about what is true and what isn’t countless times a day. Our brains act as prediction engines, constantly assessing what aligns with reality. Yet, we often confuse objective truth with subjective perceptions and beliefs. Over time, I’ve come to define truth like this:

Truth is what has predictive power over the future.

Consider the laws of physics. These laws are widely regarded as true because they allow us to predict outcomes with precision. For instance, a moving object subjected to a known force in a defined environment will behave in a way that can be calculated in advance. The ability to consistently and accurately predict the outcome is what makes these laws true.

In business, truth operates similarly. It’s the insight or principle that enables growth or improvement—whether it’s refining a product to better meet customer needs or employing negotiation techniques proven to increase the likelihood of a desired outcome. These truths hold because they reliably predict future results.

However, as we examine truth more closely, we notice that it’s often context-dependent. What is true in one situation may not generalize to others. A business strategy that succeeds in one market might fail in another. Yet within its original context, it remains true.

This understanding of truth is particularly valuable when building companies. At its core, entrepreneurship is a research process: the quest to uncover ground truth. Only by understanding something deeply—by identifying the truths that govern it—can we create lasting value. Perception may shape how we interpret reality, but it cannot alter the underlying truths. Ultimately, the test of truth lies in its predictive power. If it reliably forecasts outcomes, it holds.

By grounding ourselves in this principle, we can navigate the complex interplay of beliefs, perceptions, and objective reality with greater clarity and effectiveness.